IOTA

Do not make investment decisions based on this article – read the disclaimer before you proceed and leave the website if you disagree with it.

It is 15th of August 2017 today. This review takes into consideration investing in IOTA at its current price at 22900 satoshi

IOTA – Is it too late to buy IOTA? Maybe it is.

TL:DR

As a cryptocurrency it stands out as possibly the most original one along with Bitcoin and Ethereum. As a high-risk, high-reward investment, I honestly cannot say where it will go from here, although my gut feeling tells me that it is way overpriced now, and we’ve missed the train for big gains (it is the 16th of August, 2017). I can’t see it going 5x-10x from where we stand, in the next few months. It is a great project though. Read on, there’s a lot of interesting information below.

Summary

A massive solid fast-moving everexpanding project based on a superversion of the blockchain, called the tangle. Supposed to be interacting with the IoT and to be able to run on most electronic chips everywhere in the world. A huge maximum supply of 3 billion (2.7 to be more precise), each costing an entire $1, so yeah a $3 billion market cap… Many repositories, applications, very large community, 7 developers, team members with open faces. Only traded on Bitfinex. Different aspects of it are written in Java, C++, Rust and Go, all good and popular languages. There are rumors for an upcoming listing of IOTA on all major exchanges, and there are rumors that those rumors were the reason for the price increase.

This huge network of interacting devices that they envision, depends largely on the Internet of Things. Here’s what Google Trends has to say about its popularity:

Website: https://iota.org/
Coinmarketcap: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/iota/
Exchange: https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bitfinex/

General

  • Website: does it look good/presentable – this is probably one of the finest websites I’ve ever seen. Very complex and beautiful, well crafted sentences about abstract things that regular folks would never understand (nor did I). No room for improvement here, already factored in the price.
  • Website: Does it have a roadmap for the cryptocurrency development – yes, although it was hard to find – https://blog.iota.org/iota-development-roadmap-74741f37ed01 it is overwhelming how many things there are in the roadmap, most of which already implemented, but there’s a ton more to go, so there might be some bullish events to look forward to.
  • Website: Does it have a whitepaper – yes https://iota.org/IOTA_Whitepaper.pdf Reading it I get overwhelmed by maths or calculus or whatever that is. Seems a huge amount of thought is standing behind this project. They offer a rather innovative way of resolving the double-spend problem, although at the end they admit that there is a chance that an attacker can actually double-spend money on their tangle (their name for what substitutes a blockchain). This is a 2 year old whitepaper so whoever is interested in this might want to check if there’s been a development on this matter on their forums
  • Website: Is the domain name and TLD good – as good as it gets
  • Website: Is it a quick wordpress template, a 2-hour html job or a custom design with lots of work, money and thought thrown at it – absolutely custom, very expensive job
  • What new does this cryptocurrency bring to the world, what problem does it solve, what does it stand for– it sounds like a superior version of the traditional blockchain, it sounds as if it can back a huge interconnected network of everything (every electronic chip) possibly even people with implanted chips, and enable communication and transactions in a seamless way. Kinda scary
  • How does the cryptocurrency name sound (does it sound legit and like a good brand name) It definitely stands out, it is open, original and doesn’t have “coin” in it
  • Is it a PoW, PoS or PoW/PoS coin, what is the mining difficulty or APR, does it suffer from inflation – PoW, but somehow neither of those, it claims to be much better – the more transactions in the system, the faster the transaction approval will be, and there will be no fees. All “pre-mined” and it seems that its creators hold a nice stake in it. I don’t have a problem with that, as long as I identify a good investing opportunity. Some people use this as a reason not to invest in a cryptocurrency.
  • Who is behind the cryptocurrency – are they shady figures, or have they placed their names and pictures on the website; what is their track record and reputation; do a quick google/github research on them – whitepaper was written by a Russian, called Serguei Popov a.k.a. mthcl; author’s contact information: e.monetki@gmail.com. Bitfinex seem to be very connected to it, look at this dear message: https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/206 Couldn’t find any other team/contact information on their website – kind of a let down. No, wait. In a bit of an odd place, I found their team – https://blog.iota.org/about – in the blog. Anyway, seems like an open-face policy here, another plus in terms of IOTA not being a scam, but being a serious project instead. Here’s more – http://www.iotasupport.com/foundation.shtml
  • What is the limit on supply of coins in circulation – 3 billion! Considering the price is close to $1 now, this seems like a very overpriced coin. But who knows, we need to look at the whole picture here. They might need a lot of coins if they want to connect the entire world’s electronics. But 3 billion is outrageous, and at a price of $1, I would think that it would be an extremely bad idea to buy right now.
  • Is there a link to the source codehttps://github.com/iotaledger – looking at the list of repositories, this project has A LOT going on for it. Looking good. But still, all this is already factored in the price. We expect to find flaws that keep the price down. We want to buy underpriced, underestimated coins. That’s where the opportunities are.
  • When was the last commit made, and how frequent are commit – latest commit 11h ago
  • How many developers participate in the coding– this means fast development and unfolding of events.

Exchanges and trading

  • Which exchanges (and how reputable they are) is the coin traded on, what is the daily trading volume and market cap

    market cap is $2.4 billion and 24h trade volume of 82 million USD. I think this is way overboard.
    Ok so a MIOTA means 1 million IOTAs – https://www.reddit.com/r/Iota/comments/6j9mb9/difference_in_number_of_miota_and_number_of_iota/ 
  • Are there buy (support) or sell (resistance) walls – here is an excerpt from the full order book. The sell is much thicker than the buy.
  • How does the chart look – downtrend since the beginning that turned into a long bullish trend that keeps going. We are at an ATH at the moment, roughly speaking. Not a good time to buy, unless the uptrend continues. $1 turned out hard to beat for BQX its a psychological barrier.
  • Does the chart contain patterns that look like pump and dump actions or trading by bots – probably not
  • Has the coin spiked on one exchange after being added on another exchange – Listing on another exchange hasn’t happened yet, so here is a small chance that at some point in the future the price will spike.

Social

  • Is there a Bitcointalk forum Announcement thread – yes https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1216479.0
  • How many pages is it – 500+ pages, so I won’t be able to read it, I will visit 10 pages in even interals of 50 pages. Users mthcl, Come-from-Beyond and iotatoken seem to be members of the IOTA team.
  • History of the coin according to the forum and general public impression of the coin throughout – Starting in 2015 people express their opinion that the project is interesting. Mid-2016 there are concerns about the lack of updates. 2016/2017 users point out that it is very important for a project like this to be adopted for use by real life companies. 2017 mixed opinions.
  • Is there a slack channelhttp://slack.iota.org/
  • How many members in the slack channel – 16000+
  • What is the public sentiment in the slack channel – hard to say, too much activity
  • Is there a Twitter profile for the cryptocurrency and does it post regular updates, how many followershttps://twitter.com/iotatoken 9000+ followers, tweets frequently
  • Is there a Facebook page for the cryptocurrency and does it post regular updates, how many likeshttps://www.facebook.com/iotatoken/ 2100 likes

Current state

  • Are there any known problems with the source code, the wallet or something else regarding the coin (transactions, mining, efficiency) – some users having minor complaints on the bitcointalk forums. Too much projects arond IOTA for me to research this more deeply….
  • Is there an active development for fixes on the way – active development on many projects
  • Has the wallet been under maintenance for prolonged periods of time on some/all of the exchanges Is any government planning on banning the coin (or similar coins) or putting heavy restrictions towards its use – Problems with ICOs in the USA.

Popularity and perception

  • What does a quick google search tell us about the coin – the links, typical for every cryptocurrency + several articles explaining what exactly IOTA is, an article about the price surge and an article explaining that IOTA is centralized
  • Filter google search by recency or for “news”- what are the latest news on the coin? – https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/iota-price-surges-100-in-one-week/ – according to this article, “Along with the price spike, MIOTA has seen an uptick in popularity thanks in part to a protocol upgrade along with the announcements of several significant partnerships including Refunite, Imperial College London & F6S, UCL & UC Berkeley, and Norwegian healthcare organizations.”
  • Are there youtube videos about the coin – you bet there are. Lots of videos explaining the project and several videos from 2, 3, 8 weeks ago predicting a price increase. Well they turned out right, but lets see what happens next.
  • What is the general sentiment in the comment section below the videos (constructive, fud/hype, calling out scam etc) – mainly favorable and enthusiastic about how good a project it is
  • Is the coin associated with illegal/criminal activity or the dark web – not that I know of
  • Similar cryptocurrencies/projects – can’t think of any


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